It will be that time of the year in about a month – Welcome back, NFL!  When Sundays truly become the holy days. When Monday nights and Thursday nights become consumed with football. When the rest of the week is meant only for trash talk between opposing fans. The best time of the year.

Making bold predictions has destroyed more sports writers than I care to remember. Hell, after last year, where I made such drastic predictions like Andy Reid winning coach of the year, and the Kansas City Chiefs winning the AFC West, one would think that I would learn to shut up and eat humble pie. But that’s too graceful. Once again, here comes my not-so-humble and bold proclamations for this year’s NFL season: part one!

AFC East:

New England Patriots - 13-3
Miami Dolphins - 9-7
Buffalo Bills - 6-10
New York Jets - 4-12

People are overstating the demise of the Patriots. Yes; their offseason has been pretty bad - the arrest and subsequent release of tight end Aaron Hernandez being the pinnacle of it. But the Patriots play one of the easiest schedules of the season; only playing five playoff teams from last year. That stated, they may need to restructure their offense from the last couple of years’ dual tight-end heavy offense to one that runs the ball more. The Patriots did that effectively last year with Stevan Ridley, and this year look to pass out the backfield more often. If any duo and team can overcome adversity, it’s Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and the New England Patriots. Add in another year for a young defense that was Top Ten in the league last year in points allowed per game, and everyone will soon realize that, just like always, the Patriots’ machine will keep rolling.

The Dolphins are like the type of team that plays terribly for the first half of the year and then decides to start winning the games that don’t matter - just barely missing the playoffs while remaining mediocre. They have finished 7-9, 6-10, 7-9, and 7-9 in their last four seasons: a perfect bastion of mediocrity. But this year may be the year that Miami makes some noise. In 2012, Miami’s defense finished within the Top Ten, but their offense was ranked only 27th in the league in points per game. With the addition of superstar receiver Mike Wallace and another year for Ryan Tannehill to improve, Miami’s offense only can go up from where it was. Add in a decent schedule, and Miami is as good of a bet as most teams to make the playoffs.

Buffalo is another team that has stayed irrelevant for a while, but unlike the Dolphins, they are not likely to surprise teams this year. They do have nice pieces in quarterback prospect EJ Manuel, star wide receiver Stevie Johnson, and their beast of a running back, CJ Spiller, but the team is too young and lacks a clear identity. For a first year coach for them in Doug Marrone, making the playoffs in the same division as the Patriots and being able to turn around a defense that finished 26th in the NFL in PPG may be too much of a struggle. But will this team look to make some noise in a few years? Maybe. Just not this year.

I don’t see how anyone can think that this year’s Jets are going to be anything near relevant. Last year, the only important games they won came near the end of the season and they still finished 6-10. This team is a mess at every position on offense, extremely underperforming on defense (having finished 20th last year in PPG), and rumors still swirl around head coach Rex Ryan’s future with them. The only games they can win are the low scoring ones and in today’s NFL, where you have to score a lot of points to win, I don’t see those games being many.

AFC North:
Baltimore Ravens - 10-6
Cincinnati Bengals - 9-7
Pittsburgh Steelers - 9-7
Cleveland Browns - 4-12

The Baltimore Ravens are not due for a Super Bowl hangover year. They are too well coached for a significant drop off to happen and I don’t think that their offseason losses will be so bad, given their defensive additions this offseason to replace them. Joe Flacco is still a young quarterback and if he plays like he did in the second half of the year, the Ravens will have an even more explosive offense - especially given another solid year by the consistently dominant Ray Rice.

The Bengals surprised many in 2012, maintaining their strong defense from the year before and improving even more on offense. The Dalton-Green connection is starting to replace fans’ nostalgia of Palmer-Johnson and is also becoming one of the league’s most dynamic offensive duos. Their defense, led by NFL sack fiend Geno Atkins, remains consistent as ever and looks to make another jump this year. There’s no question that, on paper, this team will stay as good as they were last year. But what exactly is their ceiling and can they beat the real contenders?

Pittsburgh, by all accounts had a disappointing season in 2012. They didn’t have their starting quarterback for three games, three games of which the Steelers only won one. Those two losses would haunt Pittsburgh, as they finished only 8-8 and just missed the playoffs. Having lost Mike Wallace, defensive mainstay James Harrison, and Keenan Lewis, Pittsburgh only seems to be going on the downturn - especially given injury concerns for their star safety Troy Polamalu. Another big question remains: can Ben Roethlisberger stay healthy? Having missed three, one, and four games in the last three years, it seems unlikely.

Cleveland Browns. The name says it all. I’ve written about them before, so it shouldn’t be a surprise when I say that I don’t see anything other than a 4-12 or 5-11 season. Though many are finding themselves believers in Trent Richardson due to fantasy football, that’s only because his volume of attempts gives him a lot of yards and touchdowns. As far as his averages per carry, Trent is not effective: only 3.6 yards a carry does not inspire confidence in any rushing game. Add in a receiving core of nobodies and the disappointing quarterback Brandon Weeden, and it’s more doom and gloom for Cleveland. While cornerback Joe Haden and offensive lineman Joe Thomas are bright spots for an otherwise lacking Browns team, I wouldn’t count on their talent too much; in a hard division with three playoff teams, Cleveland is clearly the odd man out.

AFC South:

Houston Texans: 11-5
Indianapolis Colts: 7-9
Tennessee Titans: 5-11
Jacksonville Jaguars: 3-13

Houston has consistency on every side of the ball. They have their clear cut franchise offensive trio in Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson. Their offensive and defensive line are well built - their defensive line led by the NFL’s most terrifying defensive player, JJ Watt. Their linebacking core and secondary are also strong - especially with the recent addition of Ed Reed. My only question is if their coaching is good enough to match them up against the elite teams of the NFL. The Texans, with one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, finished 12-4 last year. I don’t see them as a very different team this year and having to face a tough schedule with teams like the 49ers, Seahawks, Patriots, Broncos, and Ravens will not make things easier for them. Even if they may be a slightly better team on paper, their schedule and coaching concerns point towards a downturn.

Not to jump on the whole ‘Colts are overrated’ bandwagon, but it’s not without good reason. Football is a game predicated on inconsistent and generally unpredictable variables - whether random turnovers, dropped catches, blown calls, missed field goals, or miraculous plays. All these factors can drastically turn the tide of the game in the favor of any team. Last year, the Colts were 11-5, but their point differential ranked 21st in the NFL; they essentially won a lot of close games because of those aforementioned variables. To put that into perspective, a team like the Dolphins had a similar point differential, at 20th, but finished 7-9. One could say that the Colts were just well coached and knew how to close out close games. But history has proven before that ‘surprise’ teams like Indianapolis, who come from seemingly out of nowhere and win numerous close games, don’t tend to maintain that consistency over more than a season. And for a team that shocked a lot of people last year, and now has several people knowing not to sleep on them, reality seems like it will hit them hard.

The Titans last year finished 5-11 and had to deal with a plethora of issues ranging from Kenny Britt’s ability to contribute well on the field, to Jake Locker’s nagging injury woes, to injuries to their offensive line. However, what contributed most to their losses was their horrendous defense which, despite finishing 9th in sacks, ended up dead last in the league in PPG. Though the addition of Super Bowl safety Bernard Pollard and another year of experience for defensive back Jason McCourty might help, the front seven’s ability to do anything other than blitz remains susceptible. Add in the offensive swap of the ultra talented Jared Cook for the run blocking heavy Delanie Walker, and the Titans don’t inspire a lot of confidence in their ability to score points quickly and pass the ball. The X-Factor here is their quarterback and until unless he shows any sign of being anything other than a permanently hurt Locker (That pun was entirely needed), or if superstar running back Chris Johnson has another 2000 rushing-yards season, there’s no reason to trust this team.

Jacksonville is...well, there’s not much to say here. Miserable, confused, unwatched, apathetic, and inept are putting it bluntly. But last year, just about everything went wrong for them. They didn’t have their star running back Maurice Jones-Drew for ten games and this year marks his return. It will also be Blaine Gabbert’s last year as a starting quarterback if he does not make some extreme improvements. Though draftee and second overall pick Luke Joeckel should help their offensive line, I don’t see enough playmakers on Jacksonville’s offense to make a difference. A bad defense which added few veterans as well as drafted rookies looks to be a work in progress this year, but not a finished product. Still - though this year may not be the year for Jacksonville to make noise, it’s at least a new start under a new coach.

AFC West:

Denver Broncos: 12-4
Kansas City Chiefs: 9-7
San Diego Chargers: 6-10
Oakland Raiders: 2-14

Denver disappointed many in their first few games of the 2012 season, starting 2-3. Then they went on an 11-game tear before losing to the Ravens in the playoffs. But don’t think this team is done making noise. Having finished with the league’s 2nd ranked offense and 4th ranked defense in PPG, the Broncos were consistent on both sides of the ball in 2012. Another year for a young defense and the addition of superstar slot receiver Wes Welker should make this already deadly team even better. So why do I have Denver losing one more games than last year? Well, for one they have a harder schedule: the NFC East is a daunting division where all of the teams could possibly give Denver trouble. Moreover, while 11 game winning streaks are nice, you will have to think that in today’s NFL, it’s nearly impossible to maintain that type of consistency. But don’t be fooled; this team is as legitimate of a Super Bowl contender as every other one in the league.

The Chiefs had a disaster of a season last year, going 2-14 (quite handily, being dead last in point differential for the entire league). But this is a team of talent - one that led the league in Pro Bowlers last year. You have to think that with a new and proven head coach in Andy Reid, that he will be able to utilize these talents a lot better than the last one (despite his rough goodbye from a similarly talented Philadelphia Eagles team). This team needs a new culture and that starts with Reid and his new quarterback, the consistent and effective Alex Smith. I expect them to surprise many and play more up to their potential defensively. That said, how far can Alex and Andy take Kansas City’s previously league-worst offense?

What is Philip Rivers’ potential as a franchise quarterback? Many Chargers fans have been asking themselves this for the last two years, where Rivers has failed to replicate his gaudy 2010 statistics. His 59 turnovers over the last two years don’t inspire much confidence in him. But it’s also his offensive line, which finished 29th in Cold Hard Football Facts’ ‘Offensive Hog Index’, which measures how good offensive lines per team are. San Diego’s 27th ranked running game also disappointed many. However, they have made additions on the offensive
end and added veteran Dwight Freeney to lead a defense that previously ranked 16th - right in the middle of the league. With the addition of the super-talented Manti T’eo through the draft, San Diego’s defense should do pretty well this year. The question is all in their offense and how it’s going to last through a brutal schedule.

The Raiders might be the most inept franchise in the last ten years. Perhaps even more than the Browns, and as previously covered, that is saying a lot. Even with the addition of the unproven Matt Flynn at quarterback, this team still has no identity. They are tailored for running the ball with Darren McFadden, but not only is he always injured, but their offensive line is ineffective at power blocking and zone blocking, as shown from last year’s ineptitude on the rushing end. Are we supposed to believe that adding decent defensive players like Tracy Porter, the washed up Charles Woodson, and Mike Jenkins is supposed to make their bad defense elite enough to overcome their lack of an offense? Last year the Raiders led the league in yellow flags/penalties. This year, their fans may be the ones leading all football fans in white flags. This team is that bad. At least their best player is uh...their kicker?  Those are my AFC predictions. I fully acknowledge that any of these could go wrong. Knowing my luck, they probably will. But hey - I had the guts to make them!

5 Quick Winners

1. Shahid Afridi – Welcome back. 76 runs in 55 balls AND then 7 wickets for 12 runs! There has never been a more outstanding display of a 1-man army in one day cricket.

2. The England Cricket team – Who would have thought that world would feel pity for Australians when it came to cricket? This is the same country that holds multiple records for wins. Beating them by 347 runs? Wow.

3. Indian cricket team: Even the B team managed to thrash a competitive Zimbabwe in ODIs. This should bode well for the future of Indian cricket.

4. LeBron James - who recently became the NBA’s most popular athlete again after years of being the league’s villain. Funny how winning drastically alters public perception.

5. Donovan McNabb, whose number will officially be the next one to be retired as a Philadelphia Eagle. A deserving ending for a Hall of Fame quarterback that gave the Eagles his all throughout the majority of his career.

5 Quick Losers

1. Indian cricketing board members. Really? You’re letting Srinivasan back? Just like that? Give me a break.
 
2. David Ortiz. I love you, but if you break telephones in the dugout and say ‘can you hear me now’, no umpire is likely to say ‘yes’. Act your age.   

3. The Oakland Raiders. Quarterback Terrell Pryor recently stated, ‘I never really knew how to throw a football before.’ It’s okay, Terrell. From watching them play for the last few years, it seems like neither has 90% of their quarterbacks.

4. Metta World Peace, whose name is reportedly up for being changed again. I somehow don’t see this being the last time, either.

5. Alex Rodriguez: Is there any doubt that he has become one of America’s most disliked athletes? You know it is bad when the Yankees fans want him to continue to be on the DL.

1 Over/Under for the next two weeks:

Four wins for the Houston Astros.

Four wins for the Houston Astros? I’ll take the under. They have to face the Orioles, Twins, Red Sox, Rangers, and Athletics. Though the Twins provide a series that they can win, the AL East opponents doesn’t look too nice for them and neither do their vastly superior AL West rivals. Could a nine game losing streak be a legitimate possibility? That is the real question.

Statistics and news from ESPN, AP, Sports Illustrated, Pro-Football-Reference, and Cold Hard Football Facts.

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