Recently, multiple news articles, op-eds, and think tank reports have asserted that Massachusetts is suffering an exodus of households, particularly high-income households, fleeing to states with lower taxes. But is it true? Those raising the alarm say that fleeing residents are taking billions of dollars “out of the Massachusetts economy” when they leave. These claims about income migration are both overblown and based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the available data. Scary portrayals of population flight are typically connected to pushes for tax cuts that overwhelmingly would benefit the wealthiest households. This is illogical given that high-income households are departing Massachusetts at lower rates than other households. Moreover, households moving across state lines doesn't necessarily mean that they take their part of the economy with them. Calls to stem outmigration by cutting taxes for high-income and wealthy households misdiagnoses the scale and nature of the problem. The current tax cut proposals based off this assumption would do very little to impact residency decisions and would result in the loss of hundreds of millions annually in state tax revenue. Such a “solution” would significantly limit the Commonwealth’s ability to address the real challenges that are pushing some households to leave, such as the affordability of housing, childcare, and higher education, and the ongoing deterioration of our transportation systems.

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