The field of Democratic Party candidates vying to be the party nominee against George W. Bush in November's presidential election went through the traditional shake-out over the last two weeks. Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, anointed front-runner by the national media, had a rude shock while our homeboy, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry surprised the pundits by winning both the Iowa Caucuses and the first in the nation New Hampshire primary. Dean had considerable leads in opinion polls in both states up until a month ago.

The fortnight saw dramatic swings in fortunes as well as the phenomenon of a presidential contender paying the price for letting himself go a little overboard rallying his troops, and being dubbed un-presidential by the media. Wall-to-wall cable news and talk radio coverage made Howard Dean's "I have a scream" the No.1 hit in the country as well as a worldwide Internet based phenom. As a point of reference, Bill Clinton faced accusations of marital infidelity and sexual shenanigans at the same point in the campaign in 1992 but managed a comeback, losing only by single-digits to Paul Tsongas in the New Hampshire primary.

Dean followed the Clinton playbook with a joint appearance with his wife on a national prime-time TV magazine show, but could not pull himself up as much. His 12 point loss to Kerry is deemed not quite enough to claim a 'come-back'. Such is the magic and mystery of modern media.

Kerry is now the front-runner and is already the target of fire from the rest of the field. Kerry received help on the trail from his colleague from the Bay State, liberal icon Senator Ted Kennedy. It is interesting that Dean began his slide after receiving the endorsement of former Vice President Al Gore, while Kerry seemed to make his steady gains with Kennedy stumping alongside him. Speaking to supporters after the major TV networks declared him the winner, Kerry noted his love for New Hampshire, adding he hoped to "have the blessings and opportunity to love a lot of other states in the days to come." Said Dean in a post election speech, taking care not to replay the exuberance of his Iowa concession, "The people of New Hampshire allowed our campaign to regain its momentum."

Senator John Edwards of North Carolina was another gainer from the first two rounds, placing a respectable second in Iowa and tying with retired General Wesley Clark for third in New Hampshire. Clark, on the other hand, may have raised expectations too high and is seen as having lost ground with that showing. Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt was a victim of raised expectations as well, bowing out of the race after a fourth place finish in Iowa which had been dubbed a must-win for him. Senator Joseph Lieberman, who skipped Iowa and campaigned heavily in New Hampshire, is struggling after his weak showing there. His 9% share of the vote was based, it is thought, largely on Republican and right-wing support. Ohio Congressman Denis Kucinich and Rev. Al Sharpton drew small numbers of votes in both states as expected. They are both continuing their campaigns to the next rounds.

With five state primaries and two state caucuses in play February 3, the campaign goes national and the candidates begin their frenzied rounds around the country. Edwards anticipates a better performance in South Carolina where he has strong connections. Clark is also favored since he has a well-liked first name in the South: "General". In other news Howard Dean’s campaign manager Joe Trippi, resigned after Dean promoted Roy Neel, a longtime aide to Al Gore, to campaign manager. "I think you are going to see a leaner, meaner organization," Dean said. "We had geared up for what we thought would be a front-runner's campaign. It's not going to be a front-runner's campaign. It's going to be a long, long war of attrition."

Sounds like we're in for an entertaining political season ahead.

How the Iowa caucuses work
Iowa held the first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses Jan. 19. It is the first step in the presidential nomination process for the Democratic and Republican parties.
HOW IT WORKS:
--A caucus is a party meeting at the precinct level in which citizens share views and opinions about the candidates and pick delegates to their county conventions. They are the lowest level of party politics and are held in each of the state's 1,993 political precincts.
--At a later date, delegates chosen at the caucuses go to the county convention, where the field of candidates is winnowed again and more delegates picked to attend the district convention. The process is repeated there and again at the state convention, where delegates are ultimately named to the national convention. In the end, Iowa Republicans will send 32 delegates to their national convention, while Iowa Democrats will send 45 pledged delegates.
HISTORY:
Caucuses in Iowa date to 1846, the year of statehood. A commission appointed after the riots outside the 1968 Democratic National Convention developed the present system for Democrats, recommending proportionate representation and affirmative action. Iowa Democrats adopted the new rules in 1972 and decided to put at least a month between dates for the national, state, district, county and precinct conventions. That is the reason, many say, that led to scheduling Iowa's caucuses in January.
PARTICIPATION:
Typically turnout represents a fraction of registered party members and eligible voters. In 2000, 61,000 Democrats, about 10.8 percent, took part, compared with 87,600 Republicans, about 16.5 percent. Those figures are down from 1988, when 88,000 Democrats turned out and 109,000 Republicans participated.
VOTERS:
Registered voters in Iowa include: Republican: 580,677; Democrat: 526,426; Green: 138; and No Party: 684,090.

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